When Kotak MF’s Nilesh Shah advised Jim Rogers to change his bearish outlook on Dalal Street

Do legendary investors make mistakes, and, more importantly, do they correct course? Well, yes and yes. The idea of a fair market stems from its unpredictable nature. And it’s the same for everyone, and market veterans are no exception. Ace American investor Jim Rogers—widely known for his contrarian investment bets—has a positive outlook on Dalal Street, again. 

In an interview to a TV channel this week, Rogers showed growing confidence in the country’s economic direction. His remarks come at a time when Dalal Street equity benchmark Nifty50 has yet to gain another 6.5 per cent to retest an all-time high scaled in late September. The Wall Street market veteran’s remarks are in tandem with the views of Kotak Mutual Fund Managing Director Nilesh Shah, who had back in pre-COVID years written to Rogers warning him against his decision to turn bearish on India. 

In an open letter to Rogers, in 2017, Shah listed a few facts that he believed to be possibly overlooked by the American market guru. “I wish you had read my letter and acted upon it, as by now you would have more-than-doubled your wealth in USD terms by investing in Kotak Emerging Equity Fund with a nominal leverage,” wrote Shah in the letter, referring to a similar open letter addressed to Rogers in 2015. 

Shah’s letter listed a few points that the Indian market guru believed to be overlooked by the US-based market veteran at the time. Several of these points, capturing Shah’s investing style, are seemingly valid even at the current juncture on Dalal Street: 

For instance, Shah is an advocate of targeting valuations and not levels in key indices. 

‘Valuation matters, not numerical level’

Citing the example of another legendary investor RK Damani’s move to buy the HDFC Bank stock aggressively, soon after listing, at not only an all-time high price but also high valuations, Shah wrote: “Someone asked him why he was buying HDFC Bank at such high price/valuation. His golden reply was: ‘Dharavi (a slum area of Mumbai) is Dharavi and Peddar Road (an upmarket area of Mumbai) is Peddar Road’.”

“The bottom line: You can make money by picking up good stocks and giving them time to deliver. Equity investing is like growing a tree. Find a good seed, plant it in right place, nurture it well and wait for it to deliver delicious fruits,” the letter read. 

‘Jump into equities… Time heals all wounds’

Shah advocates tapping the long-term growth potential of equities. 

It is more important to be on the train rather than to wait on the platform for the next one to arrive, quips Shah. 

“For the last 20 years, I have advised my investors that you must jump into equity train irrespective of whether it is standing or running. There are chances that you might get hurt if you catch a running train. But time will heal all your wounds,” the letter read. 

His advice: Take some risk and get the thrill of catching a running train. 

‘For a patient investor, India always a good opportunity’

Acknowledging that the Indian economy as well as Dalal Street will have their own ups and downs from time to time, Shah asserted, in his letter, that India would remain a good opportunity in the long run. And so it did. 

“For a long-term patient investor, India will remain a good opportunity,” he wrote. 

As of May 15, 2025, Nifty50 has delivered a whopping 180 per cent return since 2017. 

“My apologies if you find this letter unwarranted. You are far more senior and elder to me in age and stature. My intention is to make you aware about the correct situation of India,” Shah wrote in postscript to Rogers.