Canada Elections 2025: Mark Carney’s Liberals win after Trump’s threats spark nationalist surge

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberal Party has won Canada’s federal election, completing a remarkable turnaround driven by a wave of nationalism after US President Donald Trump’s threats to Canada’s economy and sovereignty.

The Liberals are projected to win more seats in Parliament than the opposition Conservatives, although it remains uncertain whether they will secure an outright majority — requiring at least 172 of the 343 seats — or will need the support of smaller parties to govern and pass legislation, Associated Press reported.

Only a few weeks ago, the Liberals had seemed headed for a heavy defeat. However, Trump’s inflammatory remarks — including suggestions that Canada should become the 51st US state and threats of a trade war — provoked widespread anger and rallied voters behind the Liberals. The surge in nationalist sentiment helped the party overturn early predictions and secure a fourth consecutive term in office.

The campaign was briefly suspended on Saturday following a fatal car-ramming attack in Vancouver. Authorities later confirmed that terrorism was not involved, identifying the suspect as a local man with a history of mental health issues. Campaigning resumed after a few hours’ pause.

Projections by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation (CBC) suggest the Liberals will emerge with more seats than the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre. Whether Carney’s party can govern with a majority, or must rely on smaller parties to pass legislation, will become clearer as final results come in.

The Conservatives had been hoping to frame the election as a referendum on former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, whose popularity had declined during his decade in power amid rising food and housing costs. However, following Trump’s attacks and Trudeau’s resignation, Carney — a former central banker — took over as Liberal leader and prime minister, leading the party to an unexpected victory.

Taking to his official handle on X, Carney earlier wrote, “The polls are now closed. For 37 days, in every corner of this country, our team worked to build a stronger Canada. Thank you to everyone who put so much into this campaign.”

Canada Elections 2025: How votes are counted

In Canada’s parliamentary system, voters elect their local Members of Parliament (MPs). The leader of the party that wins the most seats — ideally a majority — becomes prime minister. If no party crosses the majority mark, the one with the most seats usually forms a minority government and may need support from other parties to pass laws. Coalition governments, while possible, are rare.

This year’s election saw record-breaking early voter turnout, with more than seven million Canadians voting in advance. Ballots are counted manually at polling stations and Elections Canada offices, a process designed to ensure full transparency. While most results are expected by the end of election night, mail-in and military ballots could take a bit longer to finalise.

What election means for India-Canada relations

Beyond Canada’s borders, the election results could also reshape ties with India. Diplomatic relations had soured under Trudeau, especially after allegations linked India to the 2023 killing of Sikh separatist leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar.

Mark Carney has hinted at a willingness to rebuild bridges with India — a priority, given Canada’s 1.8 million-strong Indo-Canadian community and the presence of over 427,000 Indian students. Bilateral services trade also touched CAD 13.49 billion last year.

Tackling Sikh extremism concerns and restoring diplomatic dialogue are expected to be high on the agenda once the dust settles on the election results.

As the final ballots are counted, Canadians — and the world — are watching closely to see whether Carney’s Liberals will govern with a clear majority or navigate the complexities of a minority setup.

(With inputs from agencies)