Commercial vehicle sales to reach 1 million units in FY26: Crisil

LCV volumes will likely grow between 4 to 6 per cent this fiscal driven by e-commerce-led deliveries and expansion of warehouses in Tier 2/3 cities
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VIVEK PRAKASH

With a boost in infrastructure and replacement demand, domestic commercial vehicle sales volume will touch 1 million units in FY26, according to Crisil.

The growth will be led by light commercial vehicles that have seen an increase in sales with rising penetration of e-commerce and warehousing and will contribute to 62 per cent of the total volume. LCV volumes will likely grow between 4 to 6 per cent this fiscal driven by e-commerce-led deliveries and expansion of warehouses in Tier 2/3 cities.

“Domestic CV volume should grow 3-5 per cent this fiscal, rebounding from last fiscal’s slowdown and aligning with the sector’s long-term growth trend. The recovery will be driven by a revival in infrastructure execution – an anchor for CV demand – which gained momentum in the last quarter of fiscal 2025 and is likely to sustain on the back of a 10-11 per cent rise in central government capex. A strong replacement cycle, expected to account for about a fifth of the volume, will further support demand,” said Anuj Sethi, Senior Director, Crisil Ratings Ltd.

The domestic commercial vehicle sales uptick, which will reclaim the pre-pandemic peak in fiscal 2019, is also attributed to the support from the PM-eBus Sewa scheme.

Price hike

Medium and Heavy commercial vehicle prices are expected to see an uptick of a minimum of ₹30,000 per unit with regulatory changes of mandatory air-conditioned cabins in trucks applicable from October 2025. Commercial Vehicle makers have implemented price hikes of up to 3 per cent in January.

Led by increased infrastructure spending, the Medium and Heavy commercial vehicle segment is expected to grow 2 to 4 per cent this fiscal with volume comprising 38 per cent.

“With regulatory costs rising, CV makers are likely to continue selective price hikes to protect margins at 11-12 per cent. Meanwhile, capex is set to rise, with leading players planning spends worth ₹4,500 crore this fiscal toward safety upgrades, emission compliance, and electric vehicle platforms,” said Poonam Upadhyay, Director, Crisil Ratings.

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Published on April 16, 2025