Markets eye flat open amid low participation ahead of May Day

Options data points to resistance at 24,500 and support at 24,000, while a rising India VIX suggests potential for volatility. 
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Gift Nifty 24,450 signals another flat opening for Indian markets. Global markets are in positive territory with marginal gains. Analysts expect participation to remain low ahead of the Thursday holiday (May Day). 

Vaibhav Vidwani, Research Analyst at Bonanza, said: The market’s upside was driven by easing global trade tensions and strong Q4FY25 earnings from major corporates, especially Reliance Industries. Improving domestic economic indicators and expectations of further RBI rate cuts also supported buying at attractive valuations after a volatile start to the year.

Analysts expect the consolidation phase to continue amid strong FPI inflows.

Investors are maintaining a cautious stance amid uncertainty surrounding the potential impact of U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs, said Sundar Kewat, Technical and Derivatives Analyst, Ashika Institutional Equity. “Market participants are closely monitoring upcoming corporate earnings and key economic data from Wall Street to assess the broader implications of these trade measures on corporate performance and economic momentum,” he added.

Trading in F&O also signals a cautious mood.

Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities, said: The options data signals a gradual shift in trader sentiment — from confidence to caution.” Call writers have ramped up their positions aggressively, overtaking put writers, which is a subtle warning sign for bullish setups. The 24,500 strike has amassed a heavy open interest of 1.65 crore contracts, marking it as a strong near-term resistance ceiling. Conversely, the 24,000 strike has seen substantial put writing of 1.12 crore contracts, reinforcing it as a key support just below current levels.”

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has dropped sharply from 1.17 to 0.84, indicating a clear tilt toward caution, as sellers gain ground, he added. 

India VIX also rose 2.54% to 17.37, signalling heightened market turbulence. “Given the prevailing global macro headwinds, volatility may surge unpredictably. While VIX hovers above the comfort zone, its sustained hold above the key 15 threshold indicates that traders should brace for sudden intraday jolts and sharp reversals,” he advised.