rbi-repo-rate-decision-june-6-2025 key expectations interest lending rates gdp inflation forecasts background

Will the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) announce a repo rate cut on Friday, June 6? If it does, that would be a third reduction in a row in the post-COVID-19 era. The MPC has already lowered the repo rate—or the key interest rate at which the RBI lends money to commercial banks, and the very rate that impacts borrowers’ loan EMIs—by a cumulative 50 basis points (bps) since February.

RBI Repo Rate Decision Due on June 6 | Can you expect a rate cut?

Four in every five participants in a Zee Business poll of economists expect the MPC to decide to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points in the June review.

Meanwhile, one in every four participants even expects a 50-basis-point cut.

RBI Policy Review | How much rate reduction can you expect in 2025-26?

Four in every five economists polled expect total rate cuts of 75-100 basis points in FY25. This translates to reductions amounting to up to 75 bps on top of the 25-basis-point cut in April.

The remaining one economist expects a 50-bp cut in all of FY26, according to the poll.

RBI policy stance expectation

All of the participants expect no change in the current stance of monetary policy.

In April, the RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra-led MPC switched to an ‘accommodative’ stance from ‘neutral’.

The current stance allows the RBI to take a step towards monetary policy easing, whenever possible.

Simply put, the accommodative stance leans towards rate cuts.

RBI GDP and inflation projections

Now, will the RBI revise its current forecasts on economic growth and consumer inflation?

Four in every five economists polled expect the RBI to revise its GDP as well as inflation estimates in the June review.

Key things to watch out for

In the June policy statement, economists will closely look out for policymakers’ commentary on the following:

• The July 9 deadline of the Donald Trump administration’s 90-day pause on American reciprocal tariffs on most trade partners
• Above-normal monsoon projections
• Subdued crude oil rates
• Commercial banks’ financial positions

Why does the June bi-monthly MPC review matter?

The June review comes at a time when major central banks are rapidly reducing COVID-era interest rates—balancing growth with consumer price stability—while maintaining a cautious stance amid evolving trade and geopolitical uncertainties.

Last month, an official macroeconomic reading back home showed that India’s GDP expanded a better-than-expected one-year high of 7.4 per cent in the final three months of FY25, closing the year with a 6.5 per cent expansion rate. Meanwhile, consumer inflation—or the rate of increase in the prices of select goods and services, and a key metric that the MPC tracks for formulating its policy—eased to a more than six-year low of 3.16 per cent in April, according to separate official data.