‘Stock fell, but story strong’: Should you buy Axis Bank after Q4?

Axis Bank posted a steady performance in Q4FY25, even though its stock fell sharply on April 25. The lender reported a net profit of Rs 7,118 crore, almost flat versus Rs 7,129 crore in the year-ago period. Despite that, the stock slipped over 4.6 per cent intraday to around Rs 1,153 on BSE, as investors expected a stronger show.

Key positives included a 5.5 per cent year-on-year rise in net interest income (NII) to Rs 13,810 crore and sequential improvement in net interest margin (NIM) to 3.97 per cent. Advances rose 8 per cent YoY to Rs 10.41 trillion, while deposits grew 10 per cent to Rs 11.73 trillion. The CASA ratio (low-cost deposits) improved to 41 per cent, up from 39 per cent in Q3FY25.

On the asset quality side, Axis saw strong gains. Gross NPAs declined 18 basis points QoQ to 1.3 per cent—its lowest in 10 years. That was thanks to fewer farm loan defaults and better credit card recoveries. The bank also announced a final dividend of Rs 1 per share.

What analysts are saying

• Emkay Global: Buy | TP: Rs 1,400

• Goldman Sachs: Buy | TP raised to Rs 1,350

• Jefferies: Buy | TP raised to Rs 1,450

• Macquarie: Outperform | TP: Rs 1,440

• CLSA: Accumulate | TP: Rs 1,400

• Citi: Neutral | TP: Rs 1,240

• Morgan Stanley: Overweight | TP: Rs 1,300

• Bernstein: Outperform | TP: Rs 1,300

Most brokerages maintain a positive stance, noting stable margins, lower credit costs, and scope to close the 25–35 per cent valuation gap versus peers like ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank. Jefferies believes Axis could outperform as liquidity improves and rate cut pressures get absorbed.

The stock is under pressure, but business fundamentals remain strong. With clean books, improving CASA, and strong return ratios (RoA at 1.7 per cent, RoE at 14-15 per cent), Axis Bank looks like a buy-on-dips opportunity for long-term investors.