Will gold shine up to Rs 1.06 lakh level? Here’s what analysts suggest

Should you consider purchasing gold after in May 2025 after Akshaya Tritiya 2025 (April 30), or is it wiser to wait for a potential price correction? Whether it is Akshaya Tritiya, Diwali, or Dhanteras, the precious yellow metal, in physical form or via digital gold/ETFs, remains on the radar of investors and buyers alike.

Recently, gold prices hit a record high of Rs 99,358 per 10 grams on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), a 22.42 per cent surge from the low of Rs 77,078.

Is there an opportunity to buy yellow metal?

Tejas Anil Shigrekar, commodities analyst at Angel One said, “Prices are rising due to geopolitical factors, reciprocal tariffs, and the strengthening dollar. These developments, following US President Donald Trump’s erratic trade policies, indicate easing tensions between the US and China.”

Despite recent highs, gold June futures fell by 6.81 per cent in a single week from the peak of $3,509.9 per ounce (Rs 99,358 per 10 grams), while silver spot prices slipped 1.77 per cent to $32.90 an ounce and both metals are poised for a third consecutive weekly gain, Shigrekar said.

Gold-to-silver ratio

Shigrekar stated that the gold-to-silver ratio currently stands at 1:85, but it could break past its previous high of 115 in the coming months. If it sustains those levels, the trend may continue toward the 2020 peak, with key resistance at 130.

An increasing ratio indicates that gold may become more expensive relative to silver, potentially making silver the better performer in the near term. Both metals are expected to test new all-time highs soon.

What does it mean?

The gold-to-silver ratio shows how many ounces of silver are needed to buy one ounce of gold which is calculated by dividing the current price of gold by the current price of silver.

For instance, If the gold-to-silver ratio is 1:85, it means that one ounce of gold is equivalent in value to 85 ounces of silver. So, according to the analyst, this ratio may rise further, possibly exceeding its previous high.

Any opportunity for investors, traders; should they follow “buy on dips” strategy

The commodity analysts still bullish on gold with short as well as long term.

Analysts at MOFSL have suggested to accumulating gold near support levels of Rs 90,000 to Rs 91,000 with a long-term target of Rs 1,06,000.

“Gold gained 18 per cent in 2025. Though it rallied into the new financial year, a sharp sell-off followed after reaching record highs,” according to MOFSL analysts.

Do demand & supply drive prices?

Manav Modi of MOFSL has explained that supply-demand dynamics typically have a limited impact on gold prices, especially during periods of broader economic uncertainty.

“Gold has rallied in recent months, so some price cooling cannot be ruled out. Various factors—tariff wars, inflation expectations, slower growth, and geopolitical tensions—are currently driving gold prices. Any resolution in these areas could exert downward pressure on bullion.”

Analysts at Angel One recommend a short-term buying range between Rs 91,900 and Rs 92,200, targeting Rs 97,000 and Rs 1,00,200 with a stop loss at Rs 89,400.

From a technical perspective, the MOFSL analysts have shared support and resistance levels for traders:

Support: Rs 90,000–Rs 91,000

Resistance: Rs 99,000

Domestic demand surges to eight-year high

Domestic gold consumption has witnessed a remarkable rebound to over 800 tonnes by the end of 2024 from 340 tonnes in 1992, demand rose.

Historical Performance During Akshaya Tritiya

Over the last 15 years, gold has delivered a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10 per cent, despite experiencing intermittent corrections. This underscores gold’s potential as a wealth-preserving asset during turbulent times.